The pandemic has brought people from every corner of the world and with different expertise to try to understand its behavior. In this session, one of the authors of "SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe: A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution" will cover the methodology for building high capacity prediction models and the common pitfalls those interested in forecasting literature and models must be aware of when faced with such a problem.
During the talk, we will also provide a primer for those interested in submerging into SARS-Cov-2 epidemic behavior understanding and the impact measurement theory (which is incidentally very important for performance topics) has on the process of model calibration.
Target audience: developers interested in complex system modeling, forecasting, and measurement.
Audience takeaway: understanding the uncertainty introduced by relying on underspecified models. A clear understanding of how difficult performing real-world measurements of epidemic behaviors is.